Alabama could see a peak of over 13,000 new daily cases of COVID-19 by the end of August if immediate changes to personal behavior are not made widespread.
“These are scary numbers. These are much worse than we’ve seen in the past,” Suzanne Judd, professor and epidemiologist in the UAB School of Public Health, said.
Judd’s projections also show there could be nearly 8000 hospitalizations at the peak, double what Alabama saw in January of this year. This peak could arrive as soon as Sept. 1. These projections are based on the spread of the delta variant in the United Kingdom and India and the spread of COVID in southern Alabama.
Judd said with schools and universities starting, cases could continue rising despite seeming like they were leveling off in the last week.
Sarah Nafziger, vice president of UAB Hospital Clinical Services, said hospitals across the state today are experiencing an “absolute tidal wave” of patients requiring hospitalization. This means UAB has had to delay or cancel elective surgeries which can lead to more serious issues for patients in the long term.
“I want you to hear me very carefully,” Nafziger said. “We are in a dire circumstance right now and it’s time for people to really take that seriously.”
Nafziger said Alabama hospitals do not have the resources to handle the volume of hospitalizations that Judd projected. Waiting rooms have already been converted to care for patients due to lack of space and the state is dealing with a healthcare worker shortage.
“Our hospitals have a breaking point. We have a lot of healthcare resources in this state but they are not infinite,” Nafziger said. “We are breakable.”
From July 20 to Aug. 12 UAB’s number of inpatients with active COVID-19 infections grew from 33 to 135. The number of inpatients on Aug. 12 was the largest number since Jan. 21, 2021, when UAB was caring for 148 inpatients.
Nafziger said the things we need to do to change course is wear a mask and get vaccinated.
“We can stop this thing right now if we all just do our part, love our neighbor and take care of ourselves” Nafziger said.
UAB continues to offer the vaccine to students. Students can get vaccinated with the Johnson & Johnson single dose vaccine at the Hill Student Center Performance Lounge on Aug. 16 from 1:30 p.m. to 4 p.m. Vaccines will also be available Aug. 20 and 21 in the Blazer Hall Lower RLC from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. Students can also make an appointment through the Student Health and Wellness patient portal and choose from any of the three available vaccines.
Students that are already vaccinated can upload their vaccine card to the patient portal as well.
